HIV Assessing the Determinants of Population Patterns of Infection and Strategies for Control
To stop transmission, we need to reduce R0 below 1
R0 is determined by biological, behavioral, and social factors
To stop transmission, we need to reduce R0 below 1 by changing
How can we examine the determinants of R0?
The Shape of the Epidemic Curve After the Initial Rise Gives Hints About Social and Biological Determinants
Examining Epidemic Curves to Evaluate R0 and its Determinants
Varying Transmission Probabilities by Stage of Infection are Needed to Explain Epidemic Curves
Realistic Complexities of Behavior Change and Contact Patterns Amplify the Effects of Varying Transmission Probablities
Factors that augment the importance of early infection in transmission
Stages of HIV Infection
Greater level of virus in the first stages of infection
How do we come to understand the pattern of viremia and its determinants?
The current understanding of virus dynamics at the set point
Fundamental issues still unresolved about virus dynamics at set point
Current controversies about the pattern of virus levels at different stages
Effect of transmission a short time after infection
Periods of high risk behavior in high risk populations
How do we know that early infection is important in dynamics?
Transmission probabilities by stage of infection
Why is it so important to understand the role of early infection
The effect of treatment on population levels of transmission
Surveillance using partner data
Effects on infection of vaccine induced immunity
Effects on transmission of vaccine induced immunity
Possible effect of vaccine induced immunity on viral dynamics
Possible effect of vaccine induced immunity on virus dynamics
Implications for vaccination programs
Synthesis
Email: jkoopman@umich.edu
Home Page: http://www.sph.umich.edu/epid/epid655/epi655.htm