Transmission Models and the Understanding of HIV Transmission Dynamics
Familiarity With Transmission Models Detects Inconsistencies in Knowledge
Transmission Models Generate Epidemic Curves With Certain Shapes
How People Were Thinking About the HIV Transmission System
Epidemic Curves Consistent With Assumptions About Transmission
Expected Curves When Contact Rate Cut to 1/3 Previous
The Shape of the Epidemic Curve After the Initial Rise Gives Hints About Social and Biological Determinants
Examining Epidemic Curves to Evaluate R0 and its Determinants
Varying Transmission Probabilities by Stage of Infection are Needed to Explain Epidemic Curves
Realistic Complexities of Behavior Change and Contact Patterns Amplify the Effects of Varying Transmission Probablities
Factors that augment the importance of early infection in transmission
Stages of HIV Infection
Greater level of virus in the first stages of infection
How do we come to understand the pattern of viremia and its determinants?
Fundamental issues still unresolved about virus dynamics at set point
Current controversies about the pattern of virus levels at different stages
Effect of transmission a short time after infection
Periods of high risk behavior in high risk populations
How do we know that early infection is important in dynamics?
Transmission probabilities by stage of infection
Why is it so important to understand the role of early infection
The effect of treatment on population levels of transmission
Control Program Efforts We Pursue on the Basis of Model Derived Insights
Surveillance using partner data
Vaccine Effect Model in Individuals
Effects on transmission of vaccine reduction of virus reproduction rates
Possible effect of vaccine induced immunity on viral dynamics
Possible effect of vaccine induced immunity on virus dynamics
Effects on transmission of reducing chance that transmitted virus replicates
Implications for vaccination programs of potential VEI without VES
Relationships between Vaccine Effects
Synthesis
Email: jkoopman@umich.edu
Home Page: http://www.sph.umich.edu/group/epid/epid655/epi655.htm